People frequently underestimate how long it will take them to complete
a task. The prevailing view is that during the prediction process,
people incorrectly use their memories of how long similar tasks have
taken in the past because they take an overly optimistic outlook.
A variety of evidence is reviewed in this article that points to
a different, although not mutually exclusive, explanation: People
base predictions of future duration on their memories of how long
past events have taken, but these memories are systematic underestimates
of past duration. People appear to underestimate future event duration
because they underestimate past event duration.
%0 Journal Article
%1 Roy2005a
%A Roy, Michael M
%A Christenfeld, Nicholas J S
%A McKenzie, Craig R M
%D 2005
%J Psychol Bull
%K Factors, Forecasting, Humans, Memory, Perception Time
%N 5
%P 738--756
%R 10.1037/0033-2909.131.5.738
%T Underestimating the duration of future events: memory incorrectly
used or memory bias?
%U http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/0033-2909.131.5.738
%V 131
%X People frequently underestimate how long it will take them to complete
a task. The prevailing view is that during the prediction process,
people incorrectly use their memories of how long similar tasks have
taken in the past because they take an overly optimistic outlook.
A variety of evidence is reviewed in this article that points to
a different, although not mutually exclusive, explanation: People
base predictions of future duration on their memories of how long
past events have taken, but these memories are systematic underestimates
of past duration. People appear to underestimate future event duration
because they underestimate past event duration.
@article{Roy2005a,
abstract = {People frequently underestimate how long it will take them to complete
a task. The prevailing view is that during the prediction process,
people incorrectly use their memories of how long similar tasks have
taken in the past because they take an overly optimistic outlook.
A variety of evidence is reviewed in this article that points to
a different, although not mutually exclusive, explanation: People
base predictions of future duration on their memories of how long
past events have taken, but these memories are systematic underestimates
of past duration. People appear to underestimate future event duration
because they underestimate past event duration.},
added-at = {2009-10-13T14:06:45.000+0200},
author = {Roy, Michael M and Christenfeld, Nicholas J S and McKenzie, Craig R M},
biburl = {https://www.bibsonomy.org/bibtex/206e66efb621515a77c18ecf1ba7f3b76/schultem},
doi = {10.1037/0033-2909.131.5.738},
file = {Roy2005.pdf:r\\Roy2005.pdf:PDF},
interhash = {f5ed11390ba6af012c7517d77b59cde7},
intrahash = {06e66efb621515a77c18ecf1ba7f3b76},
journal = {Psychol Bull},
keywords = {Factors, Forecasting, Humans, Memory, Perception Time},
month = Sep,
number = 5,
owner = {Michael},
pages = {738--756},
pii = {2005-11504-008},
pmid = {16187856},
timestamp = {2009-10-13T14:06:56.000+0200},
title = {Underestimating the duration of future events: memory incorrectly
used or memory bias?},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/0033-2909.131.5.738},
volume = 131,
year = 2005
}