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Time Series Prediction Based on Gene Expression Programming

, , , , and . Advances in Web-Age Information Management: 5th International Conference, WAIM 2004, volume 3129 of Lecture Notes in Computer Science, page 55--64. Dalian, China, Springer, (15-17 July 2004)

Abstract

Two novel methods for Time Series Prediction based on GEP (Gene Expression Programming). The main contributions include: (1) GEP-Sliding Window Prediction Method (GEP-SWPM) to mine the relationship between future and historical data directly. (2) GEP-Differential Equation Prediction Method (GEP-DEPM) to mine ordinary differential equations from training data, and predict future trends based on specified initial conditions. (3) A brand new equation mining method, called Differential by Microscope Interpolation (DMI) that boosts the efficiency of our methods. (4) A new, simple and effective GEP-constants generation method called Meta-Constants (MC) is proposed. (5) It is proved that a minimum expression discovered by GEP-MC method with error not exceeding delta/2 uses at most log3(2L/delta) operators and the problem to find delta-accurate expression with fewer operators is NP-hard. Extensive experiments on real data sets for sun spot prediction show that the performance of the new method is 20-900 times higher than existing algorithms.

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