Long-term time series of marine ecological indicators often are characterized by large-amplitude state transitions that can persist for decades. Understanding the significance of these variations depends critically on the underlying hypotheses characterizing expected natural variability. Using a linear autoregressive model in combination with long-term zooplankton observations off the California coast, we show that cumulative integrations of white-noise atmospheric forcing can generate marine population responses that are characterized by strong transitions and prolonged apparent state changes. This model provides a baseline hypothesis for explaining ecosystem variability and for interpreting the significance of abrupt responses and climate change signatures in marine ecosystems.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
pmid
23341628
issn
1091-6490
file
:home/cboettig/Documents/Mendeley/Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America/2013/Di Lorenzo, Ohman - 2013 - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.pdf:pdf
%0 Journal Article
%1 DiLorenzo2013
%A Di Lorenzo, Emanuele
%A Ohman, Mark D
%D 2013
%J Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
%K warning-signals
%R 10.1073/pnas.1218022110
%T A double-integration hypothesis to explain ocean ecosystem response to climate forcing.
%U http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23341628
%X Long-term time series of marine ecological indicators often are characterized by large-amplitude state transitions that can persist for decades. Understanding the significance of these variations depends critically on the underlying hypotheses characterizing expected natural variability. Using a linear autoregressive model in combination with long-term zooplankton observations off the California coast, we show that cumulative integrations of white-noise atmospheric forcing can generate marine population responses that are characterized by strong transitions and prolonged apparent state changes. This model provides a baseline hypothesis for explaining ecosystem variability and for interpreting the significance of abrupt responses and climate change signatures in marine ecosystems.
@article{DiLorenzo2013,
abstract = {Long-term time series of marine ecological indicators often are characterized by large-amplitude state transitions that can persist for decades. Understanding the significance of these variations depends critically on the underlying hypotheses characterizing expected natural variability. Using a linear autoregressive model in combination with long-term zooplankton observations off the California coast, we show that cumulative integrations of white-noise atmospheric forcing can generate marine population responses that are characterized by strong transitions and prolonged apparent state changes. This model provides a baseline hypothesis for explaining ecosystem variability and for interpreting the significance of abrupt responses and climate change signatures in marine ecosystems.},
added-at = {2013-04-11T15:30:46.000+0200},
author = {{Di Lorenzo}, Emanuele and Ohman, Mark D},
biburl = {https://www.bibsonomy.org/bibtex/286ed74a9c6324dc3517739b1deb8546c/carl-boettiger},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1218022110},
file = {:home/cboettig/Documents/Mendeley/Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America/2013/Di Lorenzo, Ohman - 2013 - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.pdf:pdf},
interhash = {06bf841b888c6a15c32c81c889fc674f},
intrahash = {86ed74a9c6324dc3517739b1deb8546c},
issn = {1091-6490},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
keywords = {warning-signals},
month = jan,
pmid = {23341628},
timestamp = {2013-04-11T15:32:08.000+0200},
title = {{A double-integration hypothesis to explain ocean ecosystem response to climate forcing.}},
url = {http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23341628},
year = 2013
}