%0 Journal Article %1 Cavazos20201396 %A Cavazos, T. %A Luna-Niño, R. %A Cerezo-Mota, R. %A Fuentes-Franco, R. %A Méndez, M. %A Pineda Martínez, L.F. %A Valenzuela, E. %D 2020 %I John Wiley and Sons Ltd %J International Journal of Climatology %K 2020 CORDEX-CAM ClimaticTrends MSD Mexico ModelIntercomparison NAM RegionalClimateModels from:erick007 %N 3 %P 1396-1420 %R 10.1002/joc.6276 %T Climatic trends and regional climate models intercomparison over the CORDEX-CAM (Central America, Caribbean, and Mexico) domain %U https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85071513877&doi=10.1002%2fjoc.6276&partnerID=40&md5=f8e0f112d783089ca050331e4d2e4ed4 %V 40 %X An intercomparison of three regional climate models (RCMs) (PRECIS-HadRM3P, RCA4, and RegCM4) was performed over the Coordinated Regional Dynamical Experiment (CORDEX)—Central America, Caribbean, and Mexico (CAM) domain to determine their ability to reproduce observed temperature and precipitation trends during 1980–2010. Particular emphasis was given to the North American monsoon (NAM) and the mid-summer drought (MSD) regions. The three RCMs show negative (positive) temperature (precipitation) biases over the mountains, where observations have more problems due to poor data coverage. Observations from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) and ERA-Interim show a generalized warming over the domain. The most significant warming trend (≥0.34°C/decade) is observed in the NAM, which is moderately captured by the three RCMs, but with less intensity; each decade from 1970 to 2016 has become warmer than the previous ones, especially during the summer (mean and extremes); this warming appears partially related to the positive Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (+AMO). CRU, GPCP, and CHIRPS show significant decreases of precipitation (less than −15%/decade) in parts of the southwest United States and northwestern Mexico, including the NAM, and a positive trend (5–10%/decade) in June–September in eastern Mexico, the MSD region, and northern South America, but longer trends (1950–2017) are not statistically significant. RCMs are able to moderately simulate some of the recent trends, especially in winter. In spite of their mean biases, the RCMs are able to adequately simulate inter-annual and seasonal variations. Wet (warm) periods in regions affected by the MSD are significantly correlated with the +AMO and La Niña events (+AMO and El Niño). Summer precipitation trends from GPCP show opposite signs to those of CRU and CHIRPS over the Mexican coasts of the southern Gulf of Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, and Cuba, possibly due to data limitations and differences in grid resolutions. © 2019 Royal Meteorological Society

@article{Cavazos20201396, abbrev_source_title = {Int. J. Climatol.}, abstract = {An intercomparison of three regional climate models (RCMs) (PRECIS-HadRM3P, RCA4, and RegCM4) was performed over the Coordinated Regional Dynamical Experiment (CORDEX)—Central America, Caribbean, and Mexico (CAM) domain to determine their ability to reproduce observed temperature and precipitation trends during 1980–2010. Particular emphasis was given to the North American monsoon (NAM) and the mid-summer drought (MSD) regions. The three RCMs show negative (positive) temperature (precipitation) biases over the mountains, where observations have more problems due to poor data coverage. Observations from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) and ERA-Interim show a generalized warming over the domain. The most significant warming trend (≥0.34°C/decade) is observed in the NAM, which is moderately captured by the three RCMs, but with less intensity; each decade from 1970 to 2016 has become warmer than the previous ones, especially during the summer (mean and extremes); this warming appears partially related to the positive Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (+AMO). CRU, GPCP, and CHIRPS show significant decreases of precipitation (less than −15%/decade) in parts of the southwest United States and northwestern Mexico, including the NAM, and a positive trend (5–10%/decade) in June–September in eastern Mexico, the MSD region, and northern South America, but longer trends (1950–2017) are not statistically significant. RCMs are able to moderately simulate some of the recent trends, especially in winter. In spite of their mean biases, the RCMs are able to adequately simulate inter-annual and seasonal variations. Wet (warm) periods in regions affected by the MSD are significantly correlated with the +AMO and La Niña events (+AMO and El Niño). Summer precipitation trends from GPCP show opposite signs to those of CRU and CHIRPS over the Mexican coasts of the southern Gulf of Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, and Cuba, possibly due to data limitations and differences in grid resolutions. © 2019 Royal Meteorological Society}, added-at = {2021-05-28T03:00:20.000+0200}, affiliation = {Department of Physical Oceanography, CICESE, Ensenada, Mexico; Laboratorio de Ingeniería y Procesos Costeros, LIPC-UNAM, Sisal, Mexico; CONACYT, Sisal, Mexico; Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden; Universidad Veracruzana, Veracruz, Mexico; Universidad Autónoma de Zacatecas, Zacatecas, Mexico}, author = {Cavazos, T. and Luna-Niño, R. and Cerezo-Mota, R. and Fuentes-Franco, R. and Méndez, M. and Pineda Martínez, L.F. and Valenzuela, E.}, biburl = {https://www.bibsonomy.org/bibtex/2c652bcd6258a7850ebdfa674b1d5a0c6/publ_del_lipc}, coden = {IJCLE}, correspondence_address1 = {Cavazos, T.; Department of Physical Oceanography, Mexico; email: tcavazos@cicese.mx}, document_type = {Article}, doi = {10.1002/joc.6276}, funding_details = {249281}, funding_text 1 = {This work was funded by the Fondo Sectorial de la Investigaci?n Ambiental SEMARNAT-CONACYT through the project No. 249281. The trend results presented in this article are available at http://cordexcam-unam.cicese.mx/index.html, an interactive web site, where users will be able to plot trends for different regions within the domain. Partial writing and revision of this manuscript was done at the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) during the first author's associate visits in May 2018 and 2019. A PhD scholarship (# 486727) from CONACYT to the second author during 2018?2019 is very much appreciated. We thank two anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments and suggestions that help improve this paper.}, interhash = {46ad9fac92072c7e6dac0963b9c594af}, intrahash = {c652bcd6258a7850ebdfa674b1d5a0c6}, issn = {08998418}, journal = {International Journal of Climatology}, keywords = {2020 CORDEX-CAM ClimaticTrends MSD Mexico ModelIntercomparison NAM RegionalClimateModels from:erick007}, language = {English}, number = 3, pages = {1396-1420}, publisher = {John Wiley and Sons Ltd}, source = {Scopus}, timestamp = {2021-06-23T06:17:50.000+0200}, title = {Climatic trends and regional climate models intercomparison over the CORDEX-CAM (Central America, Caribbean, and Mexico) domain}, url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85071513877&doi=10.1002%2fjoc.6276&partnerID=40&md5=f8e0f112d783089ca050331e4d2e4ed4}, volume = 40, year = 2020 }