Abstract

SUMMARY Theories were developed to predict the frequencies of various types of con- sanguineous marriages based on demographic data of migration patterns, age distributions, and similarity of mates in the general population. The effect of migration was formulated both with discrete and continuous models. In the former, the entire population is subdivided into discrete groups (villages etc.) and migration and marriage are treated using transition and matrimonial migration matrices. It was then shown that the method of matrix algebra leads to simple expressions of the results. However, information is not at the moment sufficient to construct numerically the migration and marriage matrices to treat the actual cases, but may become available in the future. On the other hand, using continu- ous models, fitting of either biexponential or trinormal distribution to migration distances allows us to predict the frequencies observed in an actual case (the Parma Valley area) when age effect on marriage is also taken into account.-The agreement between observed and expected results for Parma is only fair. In part, at least, this seems to be the consequence of the inadequacy of the demographic information now available and that should be improved by future research.-As an indicator for the breeding structure of populations, the probabilities of con- sanguineous marriages should have an important bearing especially for human population genetics.

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