Abstract
There is a growing perception by society of the risks of dramatic
global climate changes due to anthropogenic greenhouse gases, in
particular energy related emissions of CO2. This has spurred a renewed
interest in carbon free or carbon neutral technologies for converting
sources of renewable primary energy to electricity and to transportation
fuels. However, it takes energy to produce energy, even when the
primary source is energetically cost free, such as solar or wind.
The aim of this letter is to present a model which allows the simulation
of the energy costs of the deployment of a new energy technology.
We show that the new technology may actually be an energy sink, instead
of an energy source, relative to the global total primary energy
supply (TPES) for many years or decades, depending on its intrinsic
energy costs and deployment path, even though stated aims for its
gross energy output are achieved. As expected, the energy payback
time of the conversion devices, as well as fuel and maintenance costs
are critical parameters. We illustrate the general model with simulations
of the deployment of photovoltaic electricity, at global and national
levels.
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