Аннотация
In this paper, solar irradiance forecasts made by mesoscale numerical
weather prediction models are compared with observations taken during
three air-quality experiments in various parts of the United States.
The authors evaluated the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National
Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU–NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5)
and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Eta
Model. The observations were taken during the 2000 Texas Air Quality
Experiment (TexAQS), the 2000 Central California Ozone Study (CCOS),
and the New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS) 2002. The accuracy
of the model forecast irradiances show a strong dependence on the
aerosol optical depth. Model errors on the order of 100 W m<sup>-2</sup>
are possible when the aerosol optical depth exceeds 0.1. For smaller
aerosol optical depths, the climatological attenuation used in the
models yields solar irradiance estimates that are in good agreement
with the observations. ABSTRACT
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