%0 Journal Article %1 Bishop96 %A Bishop, P. %A Bloomfield, R. %C Adelard, London, UK %D 1996 %J IEEE Transactions on Reliability %K analysis, bound, distribution failure fault growth initial long-term modeling, number, prediction, program rate rate, reliability reliability, reliability-growth residual software theory, use-time, worst-case %N 4 %P 550--560 %T Conservative theory for long-term reliability-growth prediction of software %U http://www.adelard.co.uk/resources/papers/pdf/issre96m.pdf %V 45 %X This paper describes a different approach to software reliability growth modeling which enables long-term predictions. Using relatively common assumptions, it is shown that the average value of the failure rate of the program, after a particular use-time, t, is bounded by N/(e/spl middot/t), where N is the initial number of faults. This is conservative since it places a worst-case bound on the reliability rather than making a best estimate. The predictions might be relatively insensitive to assumption violations over the longer term. The theory offers the potential for making long-term software reliability growth predictions based solely on prior estimates of the number of residual faults. The predicted bound appears to agree with a wide range of industrial and experimental reliability data. Less pessimistic results can be obtained if additional assumptions are made about the failure rate distribution of faults.

@article{Bishop96, abstract = {This paper describes a different approach to software reliability growth modeling which enables long-term predictions. Using relatively common assumptions, it is shown that the average value of the failure rate of the program, after a particular use-time, t, is bounded by N/(e/spl middot/t), where N is the initial number of faults. This is conservative since it places a worst-case bound on the reliability rather than making a best estimate. The predictions might be relatively insensitive to assumption violations over the longer term. The theory offers the potential for making long-term software reliability growth predictions based solely on prior estimates of the number of residual faults. The predicted bound appears to agree with a wide range of industrial and experimental reliability data. Less pessimistic results can be obtained if additional assumptions are made about the failure rate distribution of faults.}, added-at = {2008-06-19T17:35:00.000+0200}, address = {Adelard, London, UK}, author = {Bishop, P. and Bloomfield, R.}, biburl = {https://www.bibsonomy.org/bibtex/2442d2cf1ec27e0d41076e2ecdea9fe3e/brazovayeye}, interhash = {800f38706244b94c6fec4eec7c5250c2}, intrahash = {442d2cf1ec27e0d41076e2ecdea9fe3e}, issn = {0018-9529}, journal = {IEEE Transactions on Reliability}, keywords = {analysis, bound, distribution failure fault growth initial long-term modeling, number, prediction, program rate rate, reliability reliability, reliability-growth residual software theory, use-time, worst-case}, month = {December}, notes = {Theoretical or Mathematical}, number = 4, pages = {550--560}, timestamp = {2008-06-19T17:36:41.000+0200}, title = {Conservative theory for long-term reliability-growth prediction [of software]}, url = {http://www.adelard.co.uk/resources/papers/pdf/issre96m.pdf}, volume = 45, year = 1996 }