%0 Report %1 dblp %A Rao, Suryaprakash Nagoji %A Ananthakrishna, K. %D 1990 %E ONGC, %K dblp %T Modelling Future Hydrocarbon Reserve Accretion- Monte Carlo Simulation %X Knowledge of the future Geological Reserve Accretion forms the basis for formulating long term plans of oil/ gas production. Forecasting future accretion of geological reserves of hydrocarbon in a petroliferous basin in the course of exploration is highly subjective. A number of methodologies have been evolved in the Industry through time most of which are Forward Models like Exploratory Footage and Exponential Decline Models. These methods estimate future accretions based on past performance. As the game of exploration is highly probabilistic a Monte Carlo approach is expected to be of great help to arrive at most likely future accretion keeping in view various uncertainties involved in the parameters governing geological reserve accretion. Here we proposes two such models and their applications in forecasting the geological reserve accretions. First model, a typical forward model, estimates the number hydrocarbon bearing prospects and their contribution to the total geological reserve accretion in any specific plan period. A multi-step Monte Carlo Simulation is performed using representative distributions of various parameters like the success chance, number of prospects likely to be tested over a period of time and discrete field size distribution. Second model, an inverse model, allocates a total target of geological reserve accretion during a plan period from a basin to the component sub-basins based on their characteristics like the yield, success chance, prognostic resource base, already proved geological reserves and discrete field size distributions. These two methodologies have been applied to Bombay Offshore Basin to predict future geological reserve accretion for VIII five year plan and the results were found comparable with those obtained from other standard forward models. These methods can, however, be applied to basins, which have reached moderate to mature stage of exploration for reliable predictions.

@techreport{dblp, abstract = {Knowledge of the future Geological Reserve Accretion forms the basis for formulating long term plans of oil/ gas production. Forecasting future accretion of geological reserves of hydrocarbon in a petroliferous basin in the course of exploration is highly subjective. A number of methodologies have been evolved in the Industry through time most of which are Forward Models like Exploratory Footage and Exponential Decline Models. These methods estimate future accretions based on past performance. As the game of exploration is highly probabilistic a Monte Carlo approach is expected to be of great help to arrive at most likely future accretion keeping in view various uncertainties involved in the parameters governing geological reserve accretion. Here we proposes two such models and their applications in forecasting the geological reserve accretions. First model, a typical forward model, estimates the number hydrocarbon bearing prospects and their contribution to the total geological reserve accretion in any specific plan period. A multi-step Monte Carlo Simulation is performed using representative distributions of various parameters like the success chance, number of prospects likely to be tested over a period of time and discrete field size distribution. Second model, an inverse model, allocates a total target of geological reserve accretion during a plan period from a basin to the component sub-basins based on their characteristics like the yield, success chance, prognostic resource base, already proved geological reserves and discrete field size distributions. These two methodologies have been applied to Bombay Offshore Basin to predict future geological reserve accretion for VIII five year plan and the results were found comparable with those obtained from other standard forward models. These methods can, however, be applied to basins, which have reached moderate to mature stage of exploration for reliable predictions.}, added-at = {2009-01-24T21:09:39.000+0100}, author = {Rao, Suryaprakash Nagoji and Ananthakrishna, K.}, biburl = {https://www.bibsonomy.org/bibtex/2ddc424e09e63a53e9ccee42e2883c458/raohebbare}, editor = {ONGC}, interhash = {8cdf5778951cb9ba93a5e0b789dc0afc}, intrahash = {ddc424e09e63a53e9ccee42e2883c458}, keywords = {dblp}, timestamp = {2009-01-24T21:09:39.000+0100}, title = {Modelling Future Hydrocarbon Reserve Accretion- Monte Carlo Simulation}, year = 1990 }