%0 Generic %1 Palmer2018ECMWF %A Palmer, Tim %D 2018 %K seasonal decadal review monthly %T The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System: Looking Back (more than) 25 Years and Projecting Forward 25 Years %U http://arxiv.org/abs/1803.06940 %X This paper has been written to mark 25 years of operational medium-range ensemble forecasting. The origins of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System are outlined, including the development of the precursor real-time Met Office monthly ensemble forecast system. In particular, the reasons for the development of singular vectors and stochastic physics - particular features of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System - are discussed. The author speculates about the development and use of ensemble prediction in the next 25 years.

@misc{Palmer2018ECMWF, abstract = {This paper has been written to mark 25 years of operational medium-range ensemble forecasting. The origins of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System are outlined, including the development of the precursor real-time Met Office monthly ensemble forecast system. In particular, the reasons for the development of singular vectors and stochastic physics - particular features of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System - are discussed. The author speculates about the development and use of ensemble prediction in the next 25 years.}, added-at = {2018-06-18T21:23:34.000+0200}, archiveprefix = {arXiv}, author = {Palmer, Tim}, biburl = {https://www.bibsonomy.org/bibtex/294e53ca588fd29201afda0af0605a1fc/pbett}, citeulike-article-id = {14551777}, citeulike-linkout-0 = {http://arxiv.org/abs/1803.06940}, citeulike-linkout-1 = {http://arxiv.org/pdf/1803.06940}, day = 16, eprint = {1803.06940}, interhash = {b3f4d9580c42dc0e04d691215332619f}, intrahash = {94e53ca588fd29201afda0af0605a1fc}, keywords = {seasonal decadal review monthly}, month = mar, posted-at = {2018-03-20 08:32:34}, priority = {2}, timestamp = {2018-06-22T18:39:21.000+0200}, title = {The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System: Looking Back (more than) 25 Years and Projecting Forward 25 Years}, url = {http://arxiv.org/abs/1803.06940}, year = 2018 }