Article,

Space weather: its effects and predictability

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Space Science Reviews, 107 (1): 295--302 (April 2003)

Abstract

Abstract  Terrestrial technology is now, and increasingly, sensitive to space weather. Most space weather is caused by solar storms and the resulting changes to the Earth's radiation environment and the magnetosphere. The Sun as the driver of space weatheris under intense observation but remains to be adequately modelled. Recent spacecraft measurements are greatly improving modelsof solar activity, the interaction of the solar wind with the magnetosphere, and models of the radiation belts. In-situ dataupdates the basic magnetospheric model to provide specific details of high-energy electron flux at satellite orbits. Shockwave effects at the magnetopause can also be coarsely predicted. However, the specific geomagnetic effects at ground leveldepend on the calculation of magnetic and electric fields and further improvements are needed. New work on physical modelsis showing promise of raising geomagnetic and ionospheric predictability above the synoptic climatological level.

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