%0 Journal Article %1 sellke:1983:jap %A Sellke, Thomas %D 1983 %I Cambridge University Press %J Journal of Applied Probability %K epidemes %N 2 %P 390--394 %R 10.1017/S0021900200023536 %T On the asymptotic distribution of the size of a stochastic epidemic %V 20 %X For a stochastic epidemic of the type considered by Bailey 1 and Kendall 3, Daniels 2 showed that ‘when the threshold is large but the population size is much larger, the distribution of the number remaining uninfected in a large epidemic has approximately the Poisson form.' A simple, intuitive proof is given for this result without use of Daniels's assumption that the original number of infectives is ‘small'. The proof is based on a construction of the epidemic process which is more explicit than the usual description.

@article{sellke:1983:jap, abstract = {For a stochastic epidemic of the type considered by Bailey [1] and Kendall [3], Daniels [2] showed that ‘when the threshold is large but the population size is much larger, the distribution of the number remaining uninfected in a large epidemic has approximately the Poisson form.' A simple, intuitive proof is given for this result without use of Daniels's assumption that the original number of infectives is ‘small'. The proof is based on a construction of the epidemic process which is more explicit than the usual description.}, added-at = {2017-09-06T13:24:50.000+0200}, author = {Sellke, Thomas}, biburl = {https://www.bibsonomy.org/bibtex/23ea1ef943c2b3166bfaeac54e778a769/krevelen}, doi = {10.1017/S0021900200023536}, interhash = {e1fa57530077038c2a2f663b3a8585c2}, intrahash = {3ea1ef943c2b3166bfaeac54e778a769}, journal = {Journal of Applied Probability}, keywords = {epidemes}, month = jun, number = 2, pages = {390--394}, publisher = {Cambridge University Press}, timestamp = {2017-09-06T13:24:50.000+0200}, title = {On the asymptotic distribution of the size of a stochastic epidemic}, volume = 20, year = 1983 }