Abstract
Modular covariance of torus one-point functions constrains the three point
function coefficients of a two dimensional CFT. This leads to an asymptotic
formula for the average value of light-heavy-heavy three point coefficients,
generalizing Cardy's formula for the high energy density of states. The
derivation uses certain asymptotic properties of one-point conformal blocks on
the torus. Our asymptotic formula matches a dual AdS\_3 computation of one point
functions in a black hole background. This is evidence that the BTZ black hole
geometry emerges upon course-graining over a suitable family of heavy
microstates.
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