A recent Lancet paper gives an interesting perspective. Researchers looked at elements of dependency including continence, cognition and self-reported activities of daily living in two cohorts of people aged over 65 – one cohort recruited in 1991 and the other in 2011.

The bottom line finding from this research is that the men and women studied in 2011 were living, on average, an additional 2.4 and 3 years respectively with substantial care needs. Even with a radical shift towards healthy active ageing, it’s unlikely that a hypothetical 2031 cohort would show anything but an increase in the total number of older people living with dependency.