Abstract
The long lifetime and high intensity of vortex trails generated by
landing large-capacity aircraft may cause a risk to subsequently
landing planes. A wake vortex warning system can help to avoid such
hazards by forecasting the time intervals permitting safe operation
on the landing strip. This information provides the basis for an
appropriate landing schedule based on reduced succession distances.
An essential element of the warning system is the prediction of wind
across the landing strip and this is commonly determined by a method
based on the principle of persistence. This study shows that autoregressive
(AR) modelling can improve the accuracy of crosswind forecasts. To
this end, the measurements are analysed in order to estimate model
parameters. Unlike the more simplistic previously used method, AR
forecasting, as part of the vortex trail warning system, allows longer
intervals for safe operation and can avoid forecast discontinuities
(leaps) which are inherent problems of all forecasts in which boundary
layer processes have to be considered.
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