%0 Generic %1 manwadkar2021forwardmodelling %A Manwadkar, Viraj %A Kravtsov, Andrey %D 2021 %K library %T Forward-modelling the Luminosity, Distance, and Size distributions of the Milky Way Satellites %U http://arxiv.org/abs/2112.04511 %X We use GRUMPY, a simple regulator-type model for dwarf galaxy formation and evolution, to forward model dwarf galaxy satellite population of the Milky Way (MW) using the Caterpillar zoom-in simulation suite. We show that luminosity and distance distributions of the model satellites are consistent with the distributions measured in the DES, PS1 and SDSS surveys, even without including a model for the orphan galaxies. We also show for the first time that our model for dwarf galaxy sizes can reproduce both the observed ıt distribution of stellar half-mass radii, $r_1/2$, of the MW satellites and the overall $r_1/2-M_\star$ relation exhibited by observed dwarf galaxies. The model predicts that some of the observed faint stellar systems with $r_1/2<10$ pc are ultra-faint dwarf galaxies. Scaling of the stellar mass $M_\star$ and peak halo mass $M_peak$ for the model satellites is not described by a power law, but has a clear flattening of $M_\star-M_peak$ scaling at $M_peak<10^8\,M_ødot$ imprinted by reionization. As a result, the fraction of low mass haloes ($M_peak < 10^8 M_ødot$) hosting galaxies with $M_V<0$ is predicted to be 50\% at $M_peak 3.6 \times 10^7\,M_ødot$. We find that such high fraction at that halo mass is in fact required to explain the number of dwarf galaxies discovered recently in the HSC-SSP survey. Using the model we forecast that there should be the total of $440^+201_-147$ MW satellites with $M_V < 0$ and $r_1/2 > 10$ pc within 300 kpc and make specific predictions for the HSC-SSP, DELVE-WIDE and LSST surveys.

@misc{manwadkar2021forwardmodelling, abstract = {We use \texttt{GRUMPY}, a simple regulator-type model for dwarf galaxy formation and evolution, to forward model dwarf galaxy satellite population of the Milky Way (MW) using the Caterpillar zoom-in simulation suite. We show that luminosity and distance distributions of the model satellites are consistent with the distributions measured in the DES, PS1 and SDSS surveys, even without including a model for the orphan galaxies. We also show for the first time that our model for dwarf galaxy sizes can reproduce both the observed {\it distribution} of stellar half-mass radii, $r_{1/2}$, of the MW satellites and the overall $r_{1/2}-M_\star$ relation exhibited by observed dwarf galaxies. The model predicts that some of the observed faint stellar systems with $r_{1/2}<10$ pc are ultra-faint dwarf galaxies. Scaling of the stellar mass $M_\star$ and peak halo mass $M_{\rm peak}$ for the model satellites is not described by a power law, but has a clear flattening of $M_\star-M_{\rm peak}$ scaling at $M_{\rm peak}<10^8\,M_\odot$ imprinted by reionization. As a result, the fraction of low mass haloes ($M_{\rm peak} < 10^8 M_\odot$) hosting galaxies with $M_V<0$ is predicted to be 50\% at $M_{\rm peak} \sim 3.6 \times 10^7\,M_\odot$. We find that such high fraction at that halo mass is in fact required to explain the number of dwarf galaxies discovered recently in the HSC-SSP survey. Using the model we forecast that there should be the total of $440^{+201}_{-147}$ MW satellites with $M_V < 0$ and $r_{1/2} > 10$ pc within 300 kpc and make specific predictions for the HSC-SSP, DELVE-WIDE and LSST surveys.}, added-at = {2021-12-10T04:28:42.000+0100}, author = {Manwadkar, Viraj and Kravtsov, Andrey}, biburl = {https://www.bibsonomy.org/bibtex/274aaa67c27130a53e0601c2f99cf12cc/gpkulkarni}, description = {Forward-modelling the Luminosity, Distance, and Size distributions of the Milky Way Satellites}, interhash = {e616e071426308caa8f4ab380b9edfe1}, intrahash = {74aaa67c27130a53e0601c2f99cf12cc}, keywords = {library}, note = {cite arxiv:2112.04511Comment: 25 pages, submitted to MNRAS}, timestamp = {2021-12-10T04:28:42.000+0100}, title = {Forward-modelling the Luminosity, Distance, and Size distributions of the Milky Way Satellites}, url = {http://arxiv.org/abs/2112.04511}, year = 2021 }