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Lending cycles, and . Journal of Econometrics, 83 (1-2): 89--128 (00 1998)Is the political business cycle for real?, and . Journal of Public Economics, 87 (5-6): 1091--1121 (May 2003)The macroeconomic consequences of terrorism, , and . Journal of Monetary Economics, 51 (5): 1007--1032 (July 2004)Politics and exchange rate forecasts, and . Journal of International Economics, 43 (1-2): 189--205 (August 1997)