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Are currency crises predictable?, and . European Economic Review, 42 (3-5): 873--885 (May 31, 1998)The effect of capital controls on interest rate differentials, and . Journal of International Economics, 53 (2): 385--398 (April 2001)What drives contagion: Trade, neighborhood, or financial links?, and . International Review of Financial Analysis, 10 (3): 203--218 (00 2001)