%0 Journal Article %1 Lee2015152 %A Lee, S. %A Castillo-Chavez, C. %D 2015 %I Academic Press %J Journal of Theoretical Biology %K Aedes; Algorithms; America, America; Animals; Article; Basic Computer Dengue Dengue; Disease Factors; Geography; Global Health; Humans; Incidence; Insect Models, North Number; Outbreaks; Reproduction Simulation; South Statistical; Time Travel Vectors; Virus; algorithm; analysis; animal; assessment; basic care carrier; computer computing; control; dengue dengue; development; difference; disease distribution; environmental epidemic; factor; fever; geographic geography; health health; human; impact incidence; infection journal; mathematical matrix; model; number; numerical optimization; outcome parameters; patch planning; policy; population prevention; priority process reproduction residence rural sensitivity simulation; size; statistical study; time time, transmission transmission; travel, trend two urban vector; virus; %P 152-164 %R http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2015.03.005 %T The role of residence times in two-patch dengue transmission dynamics and optimal strategies %U http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2015.03.005 %V 374 %X The reemergence and geographical dispersal of vector-borne diseases challenge global health experts around the world and in particular, dengue poses increasing difficulties in the Americas, due in part to explosive urban and semi-urban growth, increases of within and between region mobility, the absence of a vaccine, and the limited resources available for public health services. In this work, a simple deterministic two-patch model is introduced to assess the impact of dengue transmission dynamics in heterogeneous environments. The two-patch system models the movement (e.g. urban versus rural areas residence times) of individuals between and within patches/environments using residence-time matrices with entries that budget within and between host patch relative residence times, under the assumption that only the human budgets their residence time across regions. Three scenarios are considered: (i) resident hosts in Patch i visit patch j, where i≠. j but not the other way around, a scenario referred to as unidirectional motion; (ii) symmetric bi-directional motion; and (iii) asymmetric bi-directional motion. Optimal control theory is used to identify and evaluate patch-specific control measures aimed at reducing dengue prevalence in humans and vectors at a minimal cost. Optimal policies are computed under different residence-matrix configurations mentioned above as well as transmissibility scenarios characterized by the magnitude of the basic reproduction number. Optimal patch-specific polices can ameliorate the impact of epidemic outbreaks substantially when the basic reproduction number is moderate. The final patch-specific epidemic size variation increases as the residence time matrix moves away from the symmetric case (asymmetry). As expected, the patch where individuals spend most of their time or in the patch where transmissibility is higher tend to support larger patch-specific final epidemic sizes. Hence, focusing on intervention that target areas where individuals spend "most" time or where transmissibility is higher turn out to be optimal. Therefore, reducing traffic is likely to take a host-vector system into the world of manageable outbreaks. Â\copyright 2015 Elsevier Ltd.

@article{Lee2015152, abstract = {The reemergence and geographical dispersal of vector-borne diseases challenge global health experts around the world and in particular, dengue poses increasing difficulties in the Americas, due in part to explosive urban and semi-urban growth, increases of within and between region mobility, the absence of a vaccine, and the limited resources available for public health services. In this work, a simple deterministic two-patch model is introduced to assess the impact of dengue transmission dynamics in heterogeneous environments. The two-patch system models the movement (e.g. urban versus rural areas residence times) of individuals between and within patches/environments using residence-time matrices with entries that budget within and between host patch relative residence times, under the assumption that only the human budgets their residence time across regions. Three scenarios are considered: (i) resident hosts in Patch i visit patch j, where i{\^a}‰ . j but not the other way around, a scenario referred to as unidirectional motion; (ii) symmetric bi-directional motion; and (iii) asymmetric bi-directional motion. Optimal control theory is used to identify and evaluate patch-specific control measures aimed at reducing dengue prevalence in humans and vectors at a minimal cost. Optimal policies are computed under different residence-matrix configurations mentioned above as well as transmissibility scenarios characterized by the magnitude of the basic reproduction number. Optimal patch-specific polices can ameliorate the impact of epidemic outbreaks substantially when the basic reproduction number is moderate. The final patch-specific epidemic size variation increases as the residence time matrix moves away from the symmetric case (asymmetry). As expected, the patch where individuals spend most of their time or in the patch where transmissibility is higher tend to support larger patch-specific final epidemic sizes. Hence, focusing on intervention that target areas where individuals spend "most" time or where transmissibility is higher turn out to be optimal. Therefore, reducing traffic is likely to take a host-vector system into the world of manageable outbreaks. {\^A}{\copyright} 2015 Elsevier Ltd.}, added-at = {2017-11-10T22:48:29.000+0100}, affiliation = {Department of Applied Mathematics, Kyung Hee University, Yongin-si, South Korea; Simon A. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center, School of Human Evolution and Social Change, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, United States}, author = {Lee, S. and Castillo-Chavez, C.}, author_keywords = {Dengue dynamics; Optimal patch-specific strategies; Residence-time matrix; Two-patch model}, biburl = {https://www.bibsonomy.org/bibtex/2dcd1885a038664898e87f292996284b3/ccchavez}, coden = {JTBIA}, correspondence_address1 = {Lee, S.; Department of Applied Mathematics, Kyung Hee UniversitySouth Korea}, date-added = {2017-11-10 21:45:26 +0000}, date-modified = {2017-11-10 21:45:26 +0000}, document_type = {Article}, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2015.03.005}, interhash = {114be2495405ebe244f42eda9a2a84b2}, intrahash = {dcd1885a038664898e87f292996284b3}, issn = {00225193}, journal = {Journal of Theoretical Biology}, keywords = {Aedes; Algorithms; America, America; Animals; Article; Basic Computer Dengue Dengue; Disease Factors; Geography; Global Health; Humans; Incidence; Insect Models, North Number; Outbreaks; Reproduction Simulation; South Statistical; Time Travel Vectors; Virus; algorithm; analysis; animal; assessment; basic care carrier; computer computing; control; dengue dengue; development; difference; disease distribution; environmental epidemic; factor; fever; geographic geography; health health; human; impact incidence; infection journal; mathematical matrix; model; number; numerical optimization; outcome parameters; patch planning; policy; population prevention; priority process reproduction residence rural sensitivity simulation; size; statistical study; time time, transmission transmission; travel, trend two urban vector; virus;}, language = {English}, pages = {152-164}, publisher = {Academic Press}, pubmed_id = {25791283}, timestamp = {2017-11-10T22:48:29.000+0100}, title = {The role of residence times in two-patch dengue transmission dynamics and optimal strategies}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2015.03.005}, volume = 374, year = 2015 }