Article,

A Probabilistic Model to Assess Surface Irrigation Water Resources

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International Journal of Agriculture and Natural Resources, 32 (1): 24-33 (April 2005)
DOI: 10.7764/rcia.v32i1.304

Abstract

A probabilistic model to assess surface irrigation water resources. This paper outlines a probabilistic modeling proposal of the components and processes involved in surface water availability and demand of an irrigation system of Chile’s central zone. The objective is aimed to develop a methodology for field water balance studies oriented to optimize available water resources allocation. The model includes relevant variables related to soil, crop, water availability, climatic data and hydraulic infrastructure. Hydrologic modeling tools are used for estimating water availability, describing time and spatial variation of surface water resources. A probability distribution model is applied for estimating flow rates associated to occurrence probabilities. Also, a time and spatial model for water requirements for the irrigation system studied has been developed, calculating different probabilities of excedence based on the Penman-Monteith equation, recently adopted and recommended by the FAO for the calculation of the reference crop evapotranspiration. The simulation model developed, is used both to obtain a better knowledge about the irrigation system actual situation and its water supply confidence, as well as for the evaluation of future situations and alternatives to promote the efficient use of water resources and optimize surface water availability.

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