Abstract
We present a general framework for characterizing the ecological and
societal consequences of biodiversity loss and applying it to the
global avifauna. To investigate the potential ecological consequences
of avian declines, we developed comprehensive databases of the status
and functional roles of birds and a stochastic model for forecasting
change. Overall, 21% of bird species are currently extinction-prone
and 6.5% are functionally extinct, contributing negligibly to ecosystem
processes. We show that a quarter or more of frugivorous and omnivorous
species and one-third or more of herbivorous, piscivorous, and scavenger
species are extinction-prone. Furthermore, our projections indicate
that by 2100, 6-14% of all bird species will be extinct, and 7-25%
(28-56% on oceanic islands) will be functionally extinct. Important
ecosystem processes, particularly decomposition, pollination, and
seed dispersal, will likely decline as a result.
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