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Famine, revolt, and the dynastic cycle, and . J. Pop. Econ., 7 (4): 351--378 (1994)Overlapping generations models with realistic demography, and . Journal of Population Economics, 16 (1): 135-160 (2003)available at http://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/jopoec/v16y2003i1p135-160.html.Modeling and forecasting the time series of US fertility: Age distribution, range, and ultimate level. International Journal of Forecasting, 9 (2): 187--202 (August 1993)Stochastic demographic forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting, 8 (3): 315--327 (November 1992)Modeling and forecasting US sex differentials in mortality, and . International Journal of Forecasting, 8 (3): 393--411 (November 1992)