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The Marketcast Method for Aggregating Prediction Market Forecasts.

, , , , , , and . SBP, volume 7812 of Lecture Notes in Computer Science, page 28-37. Springer, (2013)

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Distilling the Wisdom of Crowds: Prediction Markets vs. Prediction Polls., , , , , , , and . Manag. Sci., 63 (3): 691-706 (2017)Assessing Objective Recommendation Quality through Political Forecasting., , , , , and . EMNLP, page 2348-2357. Association for Computational Linguistics, (2017)The Marketcast Method for Aggregating Prediction Market Forecasts., , , , , , and . SBP, volume 7812 of Lecture Notes in Computer Science, page 28-37. Springer, (2013)Behavior, society, and nuclear war, , , , and . Oxford University Press, New York, (1989)Small Steps to Accuracy: Incremental Belief Updaters Are Better Forecasters., , , , and . EC, page 873-874. ACM, (2020)Confidence Calibration in a Multiyear Geopolitical Forecasting Competition., , , , , , , and . Manag. Sci., 63 (11): 3552-3565 (2017)Crowd Prediction Systems: Markets, Polls, and Elite Forecasters., , , and . EC, page 1013-1014. ACM, (2022)The Good Judgment Project: A Large Scale Test of Different Methods of Combining Expert Predictions., , , , and . AAAI Fall Symposium: Machine Aggregation of Human Judgment, volume FS-12-06 of AAAI Technical Report, AAAI, (2012)Validating the Contribution-Weighted Model: Robustness and Cost-Benefit Analyses., , , , and . Decision Analysis, 13 (2): 128-152 (2016)Two Reasons to Make Aggregated Probability Forecasts More Extreme., , , , and . Decision Analysis, 11 (2): 133-145 (2014)