The base rate fallacy, also called base rate neglect or base rate bias, is an error that occurs when the conditional probability of some hypothesis H given some evidence E is assessed without taking into account the prior probability ("base rate") of H and the total probability of evidence E.
About three-quarters of venture-backed firms in the U.S. don't return investors' capital, according to recent research by Shikhar Ghosh, a senior lecturer at Harvard Business School.
A. Leitner, M. Oriol, A. Zeller, I. Ciupa, and B. Meyer. Proceedings of the Twenty-second IEEE/ACM International Conference on Automated Software Engineering, page 417--420. New York, NY, USA, ACM, (2007)
A. Lancichinetti, and S. Fortunato. (2009)cite arxiv:0908.1062Comment: 12 pages, 8 figures. The software to compute the values of our general normalized mutual information is available at http://santo.fortunato.googlepages.com/inthepress2.